Texas Democrats won five new seats and lost two for a net gain of three in the Texas House. At press time, the Republicans had 75 seats. The Democrats tallied 74 including the newly elected El Paso representatives Marisa Marquez and Joe Moody.

Final results in two races, District 11 near Tyler and Irving's District 105, have yet to come in. The results of these races will decide the fate of both Speaker Tom Craddick and the Republican majority in the House. While Democrat Chuck Hopson is expected to hold District 11, District 105 remains anyone’s guess. If the district's Republican incumbent, Linda Harper Brown, loses her seat, then the House will be tied, while her victory would give the Republican Party a razor-thin majority.

"If he has 76 Republicans, he [Craddick] has at least 84 votes for speaker," said a source close to Craddick who was quoted in the Austin-American Statesmen. The question has been, does the number include any El Paso Democrats. Outgoing District 78 Rep. Pat Haggerty told Newspaper Tree last month that he believes a Craddick reelection would be bad for El Paso.

"When it came to education, he wanted El Paso to take less. When it came down to medical school, he wanted us not to have a medical school," said Haggerty, who lost the Republican primary to Dee Margo in March. "He [Craddick] decided he had absolute power...The idea that somebody has absolute power is anathema to everything I believe in government." [link]

Despite all eyes being on the Irving district, El Paso may end up playing a much larger role in Craddick’s future. The buzz around District 105 would be moot without Moody’s late surge against Margo in the District 78 race. Though 78 was one of five districts Democrats flipped, it was arguably the most important.

Margo’s unlikely loss to Joe Moody eliminates a counted-upon pillar in Republican ambitions for retaining a majority in the Texas House. It also removes what was most likely to be a vote for Craddick in the election of House Speaker. Both these factors are compounded by the possibility of other El Paso representatives cutting their losses and voting for Craddick if the Republicans maintain a majority.

Specifically, state Rep.-elect Marisa Marquez (D-El Paso) has been considered a potential Craddick Democrat. Marquez was financially backed by local Craddick-friendly Republicans such as Paul Foster and Woody Hunt in her primary battle with Paul Moreno. [link] (Both Hunt and Foster donated money to Craddick's election war chest). This led to accusations that she was part of the next generation of “Craddick D’s.” [link]
And Chavez voted for Craddick in the 2007 session, explaining it as a compromise to ensure funding for the medical school. Chavez has said she would not vote for Craddick again, and repeated that Thursday.

"Of course, when the choice was one Republican against another I happened to side with the Republican in power," Chavez said, predicting Craddick would not be speaker. "I respect him, he's had an incredible career, but his time has come."

Marquez was less unequivocal: "It's very premature to say we're going to see this in the next couple of days or that in the next couple of days. Right now, it's a no for Craddick."

The result in the District 78 election thus might have a domino effect that hurt Craddick beyond the loss of one vote, and the complexities of El Paso politics makes the District 105 race so potent. There, the battle echoes the Presidential election of 2000, when complications in Florida led to weeks of controversy over who would be declared the winner.

Republican incumbent Harper Brown led her Democratic opponent Bob Romano by only 25 votes despite outspending him $390,000 to $16,000 in the district race. Mail-in ballots were supposed to arrive before 7 p.m. on Election Day. Many of them didn’t. Furthermore, absentee military ballots had until Monday to arrive and so the number of votes remaining to be counted could be as high as 300 - easily enough to swing the seat one way or the other.

"We want to make sure that every vote gets counted and the Texas election code is followed," said Hector Nieto, Communications Director for the Texas Democratic Party. Nieto added that either party has seven days to request a recount. But Nieto dismissed fears that things would deteriorate into a Floridian farce as did House Democratic Caucus Chairman Jim Dunnam (D-Waco).

Holding a press conference on Wednesday morning, the Democratic leadership was in an abrasively jubilant mood. Dunnam gleefully quoted an article from the San Antonio Express in 2001. The article, written by now-public editor Bob Richter, then a writer for the paper, asserted that the Republicans would hold 100 seats in the House under redistricting plans that were later rammed through.

"Y'all go find Bob and ask him how his day is," quipped Dunnam, who was also optimistic that Romano would win the District 105 race.

"Stick a fork in Tom Craddick … It’s over," said Dunnam. The press conference then erupted in laughter as a man standing next to the Dunnam informed journalists, “He means that literally.”

However Craddick remains optimistic about re-election. Releasing a statement through his spokeswoman Alexis DeLee, he insisted that he is still the front runner for the Speaker election in January.

"It appears that Republicans have maintained a majority, and we think that as long as we maintain a majority that he will remain Speaker," said DeLee, according to The Dallas Morning News. [link] Indeed, if Romano loses, Craddick could return as speaker, especially if he can persuade a number of Democrats to do business with him. However Boyd Richie, Chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, remains unconvinced.

“Either way I agree with Jim Dunnam that you can stick a fork in Tom Craddick,” said Boyd, who like Dunnam, was confident District 105 would elect Romano to the House, leaving it tied.

The Democratic Chairman believes Craddick doesn't have the backing of every House Republican and is unlikely to garner support among Democrats. "He would have to hold on to all he has and it's pretty obvious he can't do that," Boyd said.

Boyd, in an interview after the conference, also recognized the role of El Paso in the race for Speaker calling Moody’s election “huge” as it contributes to “parity” in the Texas House. This means "neither side will be able to ram things through," much to the benefit of El Paso, said Boyd.

“They [Moody and Marquez] are two energetic young representatives who will work with the leadership to advance those issues and legislation that will be not just be good for El Paso, but for folks across the state.”

However, Boyd was more cautious about what might happen if Romano lost. Would any El Paso Democrats side with Craddick?

“Only time will tell, but my belief is that representatives have heard from people and those members are not ignorant and they can see that voters are fed up," said Boyd, adding that "If they intend to remain in office it would [benefit] them to represent their district and not Tom Craddick.”

Marquez, reached for comment Thursday morning, responded that Boyd ought to be helping her and other new House members.

"They should be more supportive, not just to me but other new Democrats," Marquez said. "I have not received a call from Boyd Richie since I won the primary. I have been invited to many of their events, I have given them money and supported them, but I really think there should be more reaching on their part. … A lot of people need to give us a chance."